Iron ore prices edged up slightly, while expectations for environmental protection-driven production restrictions strengthened. [SMM Brief Review]

Published: Feb 27, 2026 17:13

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Today, iron ore futures first fell then rose, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 750.5 yuan/mt, up 0.27% from the previous trading session. Spot prices increased by 2-3 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering prices, while steel mills' purchases were mainly for restocking needs, resulting in an overall moderate spot trading atmosphere.

This week, SMM statistics showed that the total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide reached 155.39 million mt, an increase of 2.46 million mt compared to pre-Chinese New Year levels. Meanwhile, the daily average port pick-up volume was recorded at 2.405 million mt, down 180,000 mt from pre-holiday levels. This indicates that supply-side pressure has not eased and is expected to continue weighing on iron ore prices.

Demand side, although steel mills gradually resumed production after the holiday, some regional mills have received voluntary emission reduction notices due to the upcoming macro window period of the "Two Sessions." The strengthening of expectations for environmental protection-driven production restrictions will substantially curb marginal increases in hot metal output. In summary, constrained by unresolved inventory pressure and policy-induced production restrictions, the iron ore market lacks effective upward momentum in the short term, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound or in the doldrums.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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